金融稳定评估方法综述

由于金融内在脆弱性,加上金融创新此起彼伏、金融机构之间竞争加剧、分业经营壁垒消除、金融全球化速度加快,金融业不稳定性不断增加。因此,对金融稳定的评估日益重要。文章就国内外学者和金融从业人员等对金融稳定的定义、内涵的界定及评估方法的研究进行了综述,针对各评估方法优缺点进行了分析,对金融稳定的评估有一定的指导意义。     

压力管道结构及稳定计算

文章对某水电站引水系统的压力管道进行结构及稳定计算,得出高压主管、高压支管及岔管的壁厚。     

Monetary policy in the UK

The authors argue that the institutional dimension of the Bankof England monetary policy and the role the UK HM Treasury assumesin this framework are both firmly based on the New Consensusin Macroeconomics (NCM). This is also the theoretical frameworkupon which the inflation targeting element of monetary policyis firmly based. This paper discusses these aspects of UK monetarypolicy, and then assesses the policy that has been pursued since1997 (with some reference made to the period between 1992 and1997 when a version of the framework was introduced). The strategyhas been successful in terms of keeping UK inflation rates withinthe targets set by HM Treasury. However, a number of problematicissues are highlighted and discussed.     

上证市场β系数稳定性的实证研究

β系数是测度投资对象系统风险的重要指标 ,但其有效前提是β系数必须具有时序稳定性和预测稳定性。我们利用邹至庄间断点检验和邹至庄预测失败检验对上海证券市场中的样本股票及构造的证券组合的β系数稳定性进行分析 ,结果表明 :多数个股的 β系数具有时序稳定性 ,大多数个股和证券组合的 β系数具有预测稳定性 ,但与个股相比 ,证券组合的β系数稳定性并没有显著提高 ;随着规模的扩大 ,证券组合的β系数稳定性没有显著提高 ,反而有所下降。     

Stability of a competitive economy: A reconsideration

Negishi (1962) suggested that price adjustment was a means of attaining a particular optimum rather than an equilibrium; this provides the starting point for the present paper. Using a gradient process to arrive at an optimum, the paper shows that with proper distribution of endowments, this process may be considered to be an actual price adjustment process. The role of a proper distribution is investigated further and related to the existing published literature. It is also shown that if the distribution of endowments satisfies certain regularity features then the equilibrium will be globally stable under the classical price adjustment rule where price adjustment is proportional to excess demand.     

Time-Consistent Polities and Growth in Developing Countries: An Empirical Analysis

This paper investigates whether stable political regimes develop stable systems of rules that are conducive to growth, similar to property rights. New measures of political stability indicate that stable political systems stimulate growth in developing autocratic countries. Contrarily, political instability significantly reduces growth in autocracies, as instability creates a time-consistency problem. In some specifications, an instability measure has significant negative growth effects in democracies, and may be an alternative to measures of property rights. Similarly, ethnic fractionalization reduces growth in autocracies, but not developing democracies. Tests indicate that these results are not sensitive to extreme values in the data. JEL no. O40, H11     

Unnoticed predecessors of the early Negishi theorems

From the studies of the history of economic thought, we can learn that many theorems of the modern general equilibrium theory were well anticipated in the classical economics and the economics of the marginal revolution. For example, first, what Johann Heinrich von Thünen (1783–1850) did, in his strange theory of natural wage, can be interpreted as an early, pioneering attempt to use the so-called Negishi method (1960), which is now intensively used for the proof of the existence theorem and the numerical calculation of a general equilibrium. Second, as is well known, no exchanged transactions are permitted out of equilibria in the famous Walrasian tatonnement adjustment process towards market equilibria. Against this, the importance of transactions carried out at disequilibria is emphasized in the studies of the so-called Hahn–Negishi non-tatonnement process (1962). As a matter of fact, in the classical economics, this is exactly what William Thomas Thornton (1813–1380) insisted against the authority of John Stuart Mill (1800–1873). Finally, subjectively perceived (often kinked) demand curves are considered in my proof of the existence of a general equilibrium in the case of monopolistic competition (1961). To my surprise, however, I found later that such demand curves were already hidden in Adam Smith's (1723–1790) consideration of markets and the division of labor, and that the increase of demand never fails to lower the price of goods.     

聚硅酸盐类絮凝剂研究与应用进展

叙述了聚硅酸盐类絮凝剂的研究开发进展、应用及性能、市场分析、预测以及存在问题与不足.     

Stochastic stability and time-dependent mutations

This paper considers stochastic stability analysis in evolutionary models with time-dependent mutations. It takes a class of time-homogeneous Markov models where the transition probabilities are approximately polynomial functions of the mutation parameter and allows the mutation parameter to decline to zero over time. The main result shows that as long as the mutation parameter converges to zero slowly enough and its variation is finite, the resulting time-inhomogeneous model has a limiting distribution regardless of the details of the mutation process. Moreover, a bound on the required rate of decline is explicitly expressed as a function of the minimum coradius of the limit sets and the transition probabilities within the minimum coradius set.     

Hiring for retention and performance

This study evaluated the usefulness of several pre‐hire variables to predict voluntary turnover and job performance. Analyses showed that applicants who knew current employees, had longer tenure with previous employers, were conscientious and emotionally stable, were motivated to obtain the job, and were confident in themselves and their decision making were less likely to quit, and had higher performance within six months after hire. Results also indicated that pre‐hire attitudes (employment motivation and personal confidence) did not predict turnover and performance beyond biodata (pre‐hire embeddedness in the organization and habitual commitment) and the personality traits (conscientiousness and emotional stability). For all predictors but personality, the strength of the relationships weakened over time up to two years after hire. Nonetheless, organizations can avoid voluntary turnover and increase performance by basing hiring decisions on the set of predictors analyzed in this study. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.